The Dangerous Imbalance: How the Pentagon's AI Dominance Threatens Government Power Dynamics
The Department of Defense has captured a staggering 70-90% of all federal AI contracts, creating a dramatic capability imbalance within the US government that could reshape internal power dynamics and leave civilian agencies unprepared for the AI revolution, according to a comprehensive new report examining government AI adoption.
This stark disparity comes despite the DoD historically representing only a minority of federal IT spending, writes End of Miles, highlighting a technological divide that could have profound implications for governmental power distribution.
The Pentagon's AI advantage
The Forethought Research report, titled "The AI Adoption Gap: Preparing the US Government for Advanced AI" and released this month, reveals that by August 2023, federal agencies had committed to $675 million in AI-related contracts, with the Defense Department claiming an overwhelming 82% share.
"This trend was even more extreme among new contracts; in FY2023, 88-96% of federal AI contracts were due to the DOD." Forethought Research
The researchers note this concentration is particularly striking when compared to typical IT spending patterns. "The DOD has historically accounted for less than half of federal IT spending — generally between 40% - 50%," the report states, adding that the department's traditional dominance in federal contracts has primarily been driven by weapons systems.
Why the military is pulling ahead
The Pentagon's aggressive AI adoption isn't happening by accident. Defense officials view the technology as critical to maintaining America's military edge, a perspective clearly reflected in policy documents.
"The DOD's 'AI Adoption Strategy' stresses goals like 'ensure U.S. warfighters maintain decision superiority on the battlefield for years to come' and 'competitive advantage in fielding the emerging technology.'" The AI Adoption Gap report
Meanwhile, civilian agencies face persistent obstacles including scarce technical talent, insufficient funding, convoluted procurement processes, outdated IT infrastructure, and burdensome legal requirements. The analysis found that even when civilian agencies attempt AI projects, they often lack the sophistication seen in Defense Department implementations.
The coming power shift
Beyond immediate operational advantages, this technological divide could fundamentally alter how power is distributed within the federal government, according to the Forethought researchers.
"The balance and separation of powers within the US government could shift," the report warns. "If most government bodies have little AI expertise, groups that leverage the tech may leap ahead, broadening their reach."
This imbalance doesn't necessarily require deliberate action to reshape government. As the study explains, it could happen "simply because AI-boosted groups are able to handle more and start taking on greater responsibility."
What's at stake
The civilian-military AI divide represents more than a technical curiosity—it potentially threatens core democratic functions. While military applications advance rapidly, civilian agencies responsible for economic management, regulatory oversight, social services, and other critical functions risk falling further behind.
The researchers emphasize this divide could become self-reinforcing. "Successfully leveraging AI would translate into profits and accumulated expertise, which in turn make it easier to leverage AI in the future—a compounding effect," they note, adding that if AI capabilities progress at greater-than-linear speed, "lagging by a fixed amount of time will translate to a growing capability gap."
Without addressing this disparity, the federal government risks not only operational inefficiencies but also a fundamental restructuring of power away from civilian oversight—a concerning prospect as AI capabilities continue their rapid advancement.
