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Sam Altman: Developer Productivity Will Increase 10X by 2026

End Of Miles

06 Apr 2025 — 2 min read

Software developers will become ten times more productive within the next year thanks to artificial intelligence tools, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. The tech leader's bold prediction signals a coming revolution in how code is written that could fundamentally transform the global software development landscape.

End of Miles reports this productivity leap could arrive significantly sooner than competing estimates, with Altman explicitly challenging Anthropic's 2027 timeline by stating OpenAI will deliver these capabilities by 2025 or 2026 at the latest.

From Incremental Gains to Revolutionary Change

Altman acknowledges that AI coding assistants have already delivered meaningful improvements, but believes we're on the cusp of something much more significant. "I think a coder is already several times more productive," Altman explained. "People maybe say 2x, 3x, but I haven't heard many people—I haven't heard a consensus for 10x yet."

"Predictions, especially predictions with a timeline attached, are always difficult, but I think we can aim at that." Sam Altman on achieving 10x developer productivity

The OpenAI chief's projection represents a dramatic acceleration from current capabilities, suggesting a step-function improvement rather than gradual evolution. While most industry observers recognize that tools like ChatGPT and GitHub Copilot have boosted programmer output, Altman's timeline for reaching 10x efficiency exceeds even the most optimistic public forecasts.

India's $250 Billion Question

Altman specifically addressed concerns about how such productivity gains might impact India's estimated $250 billion IT services export industry. Rather than predicting job losses, he offered a counterintuitive take on the potential economic impact.

"If there's one area where I think the world just has so much more demand than we can currently supply, it's for code written. My belief is that the world just wants way more software and is about to get it." Sam Altman

The tech executive suggested that while individual developers will need to share some of their increased productivity with AI tool providers, and market prices for certain coding tasks may decline, overall demand could rise dramatically enough to counterbalance these effects.

The Jevons Paradox for Software

Altman referenced a fascinating economic principle when discussing the future software market, predicting that AI-powered development will likely follow Jevons paradox—where increased efficiency leads to higher, not lower, total consumption.

"Everyone seems obsessed with Jevons paradox all of a sudden, and I would bet this will be an example of it... the cost might drop a certain amount, but then also demand goes up by that amount." Sam Altman

This "more of everything" scenario contrasts sharply with narratives focused exclusively on displacement, suggesting instead a transformed market where developers using AI tools can create significantly more value while serving previously unaddressable demand for software solutions.

For individual developers, Altman's vision implies an urgent imperative to incorporate these tools, with those resisting change potentially falling dramatically behind their AI-enhanced peers in output, capabilities, and eventually market relevance.

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